Can analysis of world affairs go beyond probability assessment? How do Hong Kong people view the current challenges?
There may be some things in this world that you should go all out to do, transcending probability calculations and realistic considerations. Could it be that what Confucius did in his life was this kind of thing “knowing that it is impossible but doing it”?
Author: GUDORDI | 2023-10-05
Under the unpredictable conditions of the future, it is really not that easy or simple to decide what is impossible and unworthy. (Shutterstock)
Zilu stayed at Shimen. Chenmen asked: “Xi Zi?”
Zilu said: “From Kong.”
He said: “Is it the one who knows it is impossible and does it?”
──”The Analects·Xianwen Chapter”
In the last chapter, the author mentioned that in matters in the human world, only perseverance can overcome resistance. To build a world-class international financial center, it often takes dozens or even hundreds of years, and the process can naturally accommodate several years of adversity. It is too early to conclude that Hong Kong’s future is over.
The author dare not underestimate the challenges Hong Kong is currently facing, nor do I advocate looking at the optimistic side of everything. If China and the United States break out into a full-scale war or become sworn enemies, no matter how hard we try, our efforts will have limited effect unless Hong Kong can find strong and independent resources to support us in “going our own way” in the financial industry.
Limitations of objective analysis
However, we should not give up and be too pessimistic. Even though what lies ahead of us is likely to be an “uphill battle” (a tough battle), we should make up our minds to make all preparations, do our best, and accept and face the possibility of a long struggle. If you give up, the consequences will be unbearable. The author believes that the probability of success is not as low as many people think. Hong Kong still has the conditions to take a few years to work hard to overcome the relevant challenges.
In the final analysis, there will always be uncertainty in the future. No matter how good and thorough the analysis is, it can only include currently known variables. There are still limits to accuracy, and it is impossible to be 100% sure of the future.
Looking at a higher level, can all things in the world be subject to so-called objective analysis? Do we have to look at everything from this perspective? Is there something that goes beyond objective analysis and probability assessment?
Knight and the Capitalist System
This is a philosophical question. Frank Knight, a veteran of the Chicago school of economics, published a classic paper in 1921 called “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit”, which touched upon similar issues. problem. Knight believes that uncertainty cannot be analyzed probabilistically and passed on to others. In the theory of economic operation, the risk of uncertainty must be borne by someone. The greatest contribution of entrepreneurs undoubtedly lies in this. Profit is the reward for the risk they take.
It is worth noting that Knight once described the essence of capitalism as unethical, which will only lead to the continuous accumulation of wealth and power of capitalists. However, this article is widely regarded as the most outstanding document to date in defending the rationality of capitalist profits, and Chicago has always been a stronghold in defending capitalism and free markets. From this point of view, Knight supports the capitalist system not because he is unaware of the system’s potential problems. Similarly, the author believes that Hong Kong people should not give up on Hong Kong, not because they do not understand the challenges.
Know it's impossible and do it
Economist master Armen Alchian once asked the question about waste: “Why waste it? Send 200 ships to the sea to find survivors of shipwrecks. In the end, only one can find survivors, and the other 199 ships count Isn’t it a waste?” It can be seen from this that under the unpredictable conditions of the future, it is really not that easy and simple to decide what is impossible and unworthy.
The beginning of this article quotes a passage from The Analects of Confucius, which reflects that there may be some things in the world that should be done with all one’s strength, transcending probability calculations and realistic considerations. Could it be that what Confucius did in his life was this kind of thing “knowing that it is impossible but doing it”?
“Hong Kong’s Legendary Future” Series 39
Contact the author: Gudordi@proton.me
